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MARKET CLOSE / 2026.09.23

The 10-year is back above 5%, and the record run stopped

A hot September PMI and hawkish Fed comments sent the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.11%, after an intraday high not seen since 2007. The Nasdaq fell 1.13% and the Russell 2000 1.77%. A September 23 close report with sectors, stocks and what to check next.

Read the close
Nasdaq Composite26,936.04−1.13%
S&P 5007,706.03−0.75%
Dow51,511.59−0.68%

September 23 closes · daily changes · sources and values are documented below. See evidence ↗

THREE THREADS OF THE DAY

01

Yields

Ten-year at 5.11%, up 15bp in a day

02

Economy & the Fed

PMI 58.4; October hike odds above 66%

03

Sectors & stocks

Energy the only sector of eleven to rise

What this September 23 close report covers

This report was prepared after the US regular session closed on September 23, 2026 (9:00 p.m. EDT). Equity and sector figures are September 23 regular-session closes; yields are that day's Treasury par yields; business-activity data come from S&P Global's flash release. Oil prices are given with their contract month. Passages labeled GSDAQ's interpretation distinguish our reading of the evidence from reported facts. This dated article does not update automatically and follows this morning's premarket view.

Sources: CNBC · September 23, 2026 stock market live updates and close · Yahoo Finance · September 23 market recap and index quotes · U.S. Treasury · September 2026 daily par yield curve · S&P Global · US Flash PMI, September 2026 · GSDAQ · September 23 premarket view

All three indexes fell; small caps fell most

The Nasdaq fell 1.13% to 26,936.04, ending its record run; its intraday high never reached Tuesday's close. The S&P 500 lost 0.75% and the Dow 0.68%. The Russell 2000 dropped 1.77%, closing essentially at its low, and the semiconductor index (SOX) fell 1.23%. Stocks opened slightly lower and extended losses after the 9:45 a.m. PMI release. The VIX rose 6.83% to 15.18.

Sources: CNBC · September 23, 2026 stock market live updates and close · Yahoo Finance · September 23 market recap and index quotes

September 23 index changes: Russell 2000 −1.77%, SOX −1.23%, Nasdaq −1.13%, S&P 500 −0.75%, Dow −0.68%.
Daily change (%). Bars extend down from zero.
Read the chart as a table
Sep 23 change (%)
Russell 2000-1.77
SOX-1.23
Nasdaq-1.13
S&P 500-0.75
Dow-0.68

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September 23 US close · changes from the previous session
IndexCloseChange
Nasdaq Composite
Source
26,936.04−1.13%
S&P 500
Source
7,706.03−0.75%
Dow
Source
51,511.59−0.68%
Russell 2000
Source
2,838.66−1.77%

Four basis points away this morning, 5.11% by the close

This morning's article noted the ten-year sat four basis points below 5%. The Treasury's September 23 ten-year par yield was 5.11%, up 15 basis points on the day—the largest one-day rise this month. CNBC reported an intraday 5.135%, the highest since July 2007. The two-year rose 14 basis points to 4.85% and the thirty-year 11 basis points to 5.40%. GSDAQ's interpretation: short and long yields rose together. Signs of a hot economy lifted both policy-rate expectations and long-term financing costs.

Sources: U.S. Treasury · September 2026 daily par yield curve · CNBC · September 23, 2026 stock market live updates and close · GSDAQ · September 23 premarket view

September ten-year par yield: from 4.79% on September 1 to 5.11% on September 23, back above 5%.
Treasury ten-year par yield (%) and daily change (bp). Dashed line at 5.00%.
Read the chart as a table
10-year (%)Daily change (bp)
9/14.79+4
9/24.790
9/34.77-2
9/44.78+1
9/84.80+2
9/94.83+3
9/104.95+12
9/114.96+1
9/144.97+1
9/155.00+3
9/165.01+1
9/174.94-7
9/185.01+7
9/214.96-5
9/224.960
9/235.11+15

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Daily Treasury par yields, not intraday quotes
MaturitySep 22Sep 23Change
2-year
Source
4.71%4.85%+14bp
10-year
Source
4.96%5.11%+15bp
30-year
Source
5.29%5.40%+11bp

A hot economy, and a Fed open to tightening further

S&P Global's flash US composite PMI for September rose to 58.4, a 62-month high. Services reached 58.7 and manufacturing 57.0, both well above August. The release said input-cost inflation was the strongest since October 2022, led by energy. The same day, Fed Governor Barr said further policy adjustments are likely to be needed. CME FedWatch odds of an October hike, as cited by CNBC, rose above 66%. GSDAQ's interpretation: a textbook day of good data weighing on stocks. Prices and rates were read before growth.

Sources: S&P Global · US Flash PMI, September 2026 · CNBC · September 23, 2026 stock market live updates and close

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S&P Global US flash PMI · above 50 means expansion
IndexSepAug
Composite
Source
58.456.0
Services
Source
58.756.5
Manufacturing
Source
57.053.9

One sector of eleven rose: energy

Of the S&P 500's eleven sector indexes, only energy rose, up 1.04%. Communication services (−1.89%), utilities (−1.87%), consumer discretionary (−1.63%) and real estate (−1.49%) fell most. Industrials (−0.11%) and consumer staples (−0.17%) held up best. GSDAQ's interpretation: rate-sensitive utilities and real estate fell alongside growth stocks whose value rests on distant earnings, while only the sector tied to oil's rebound held. This looks less like a tech-only pullback than a day when yields repriced the market.

Sources: Yahoo Finance · S&P 500 sector index quotes, September 23 close (Energy ^GSPE shown; other sectors ^SP500-15 to ^SP500-60)

September 23 S&P 500 sector changes: only energy rose, +1.04%; communication services was worst at −1.89%.
S&P 500 sector indexes, daily change (%). Green rose, pink fell.
Read the chart as a table
Sector change (%)
Energy1.04
Indust.-0.11
Staples-0.17
Financ.-0.44
Materials-0.65
Health-0.65
Tech-0.66
Real est.-1.49
Discr.-1.63
Utilities-1.87
Comm.-1.89

Alphabet −3.80%, Meta +1.02%

Large AI stocks split. Alphabet fell 3.80% to $337.83; Yahoo Finance pointed to competition from Meta's AI assistant, price cuts on leading AI models and heavy capital spending. Meta rose 1.02% to $744.10, Nvidia fell 1.47% to $225.51 and Microsoft gained 0.52%. McDonald's fell 4.81% after its investor day warned that inflation and flat traffic would persist. GSDAQ's interpretation: within the same AI theme, competitive position and cost burdens drive stocks apart.

Sources: Yahoo Finance · Why Alphabet (GOOGL) stock is down today · Yahoo Finance · September 23 market recap and index quotes · CNBC · September 23, 2026 stock market live updates and close

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September 23 closes · changes from the previous session
StockCloseChange
Alphabet (GOOGL)
Source
$337.83−3.80%
Meta (META)
Source
$744.10+1.02%
Nvidia (NVDA)
Source
$225.51−1.47%
Microsoft (MSFT)
Source
$500.59+0.52%
McDonald's (MCD)
Source
$238.32−4.81%

$98 this morning, $103 by the settle: oil reversed

This morning's article had Brent in the $98 range on hopes for US–Iran talks. By the close the direction had flipped. The near-expiry November Brent contract settled about 3.9% higher at $103.08, and November WTI rose 1.8% to $92.16. CNBC attributed the rebound to the strong PMI. December Brent settled at $98.12, so the contract month matters. GSDAQ's interpretation: oil's rebound points the same way as the input-cost pressure in the PMI. Rising yields and oil together can renew pressure on corporate costs.

Sources: CNBC · September 23, 2026 stock market live updates and close · GSDAQ · September 23 premarket view

What to check on Thursday and Friday

Thursday brings weekly jobless claims and August new home sales, with Costco reporting after the close and several Fed officials, including New York Fed President Williams, speaking. Friday brings August durable goods orders and the final University of Michigan sentiment reading. GSDAQ's interpretation: watch whether the ten-year holds above 5%, whether October hike expectations grow, and whether AI-related results keep adding evidence despite higher rates. This article does not forecast direction; it lists the numbers to check.

Sources: Kiplinger · This week's economic calendar · CNBC · September 23, 2026 stock market live updates and close

Sources