The basis for October 1
This review is fixed to the October 1, 2026 US regular-session close. Stock prices exclude after-hours trading. The yield chart uses Treasury daily par yields, derived from quotations at or near 3:30 p.m. EDT; these differ from the intraday observations in the text. Micron’s next-quarter revenue is company guidance, not a reported result. This article does not update automatically.
Sources: AP · October 1 regular-session index closes · U.S. Treasury · October 2026 daily par yields
A modest gain to open the fourth quarter
The S&P 500 closed at 7,666.45, up 0.19%, ending a three-session losing streak. The Nasdaq and Dow barely finished higher, while the small-cap Russell 2000 gained 0.35%. The gains were small. Recovering the morning’s losses was the distinguishing feature of the session.
Sources: AP · October 1 regular-session index closes
Daily change (%)
Read the chart as a table
| Daily change (%) | |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 0.19 |
| Nasdaq | 0.04 |
| Dow | 0.04 |
| Russell 2000 | 0.35 |
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At 5.24%, the 10-year offered some relief
The US 10-year yield moved above 5.3% during the session before easing to about 5.24% around the equity close. Stocks recovered their morning losses as yields retreated. The Treasury’s daily par yield was also 5.24%, down 5 basis points from 5.29% the previous day. Higher rates reduce the present value assigned to future earnings; a pause in the rise can ease that pressure. GSDAQ’s reading: the retreat in yields helped the recovery, but one day is not enough to establish a change in the rate trend. A 5.24% yield still weighs on financing costs and asset valuations.
Sources: Yahoo Finance · October 1 market close · U.S. Treasury · October 2026 daily par yields · U.S. Treasury · September 2026 daily par yields
Daily observations · 5.20–5.32%
Read the chart as a table
| 10-year (%) | |
|---|---|
| 9/29 | 5.26 |
| 9/30 | 5.29 |
| 10/1 | 5.24 |
Micron put a number on AI demand
Micron reported fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 revenue of $54.23 billion after Wednesday’s close, about 4.8 times the $11.32 billion a year earlier. Its next-quarter revenue guidance is $60–63 billion. The $61.5 billion midpoint is about 13.4% above the latest quarter, calculated by GSDAQ from the reported figures. This is company guidance, not a completed result. The stock recovered an intraday decline to close 3.03% higher at $1,097.39. GSDAQ’s reading: the evidence that AI investment is becoming supplier revenue strengthened. The next question is how long that growth can last, and whether demand and profitability hold as memory supply increases.
Sources: Micron · Fiscal Q4 2026 results and Q1 2027 guidance · Micron · Daily historical prices
Revenue · USD billions · 0–70
FY25 Q4
Reported
FY26 Q4
Reported
FY27 Q1 guide
Company guidance · Midpoint
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| Revenue / guidance midpoint ($bn) | |
|---|---|
| FY25 Q4 | 11.315 |
| FY26 Q4 | 54.229 |
| FY27 Q1 guide | 61.500 |
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Manufacturing orders and costs both increased
September’s ISM Manufacturing PMI was 54.5, slightly below August’s 54.6, with the sector expanding for a ninth consecutive month. New Orders rose from 53.7 to 55.3. Prices rose from 71.1 to 77.9. The latter is a diffusion index of price changes, not a 77.9% inflation rate. GSDAQ’s reading: demand is holding up while input costs increase. Earnings outcomes may depend on whether companies can pass those costs to customers. More orders do not automatically mean better profitability for every manufacturer.
Sources: ISM · September 2026 Manufacturing PMI
Diffusion index · 0–100
Manufacturing PMI−0.1pt
New Orders+1.6pt
Prices+6.8pt
Read the chart as a table
| August (pt) | September (pt) | |
|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 54.6 | 54.5 |
| New Orders | 53.7 | 55.3 |
| Prices | 71.1 | 77.9 |
Are earnings growing enough to carry high rates?
The previous article examined earnings growth as one reason stocks can hold up despite higher rates. The same question remains. Micron’s results and outlook support the case for strong AI demand, while the manufacturing price index shows rising costs elsewhere. Both can persist. Companies with rapid revenue growth and pricing power have more room to absorb high financing costs. Those with heavy borrowing or little ability to pass on costs may see profits shrink. GSDAQ’s reading: look at the businesses whose earnings support the index, as well as the index itself. One day of small-cap outperformance does not establish a broad easing of pressure.
Sources: GSDAQ · September 30 market view
The next check is the October 2 jobs report
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish September’s Employment Situation on October 2 at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Watch job creation and wage pressure, whether Treasury yields continue to retreat after the release, and whether small caps and equal-weight indexes recover alongside large AI companies. Strong employment can support revenue expectations while also renewing pressure on rates. The report and the bond market’s response need to be read together.
Sources: BLS · October 2026 release calendar
Sources
- AP · October 1 regular-session index closes
- Yahoo Finance · October 1 market close
- Micron · Fiscal Q4 2026 results and Q1 2027 guidance
- Micron · Daily historical prices
- ISM · September 2026 Manufacturing PMI
- BLS · October 2026 release calendar
- U.S. Treasury · October 2026 daily par yields
- U.S. Treasury · September 2026 daily par yields
- GSDAQ · September 30 market view